In any given month, 4 in 10 small businesses hit a zero bank balance. In 2020, that number was close to zero. It's climbed every year since.

We wanted to better understand the cash stress small businesses are actually dealing with, so we went straight to the bank account and analyzed 1.3 million transactions across hundreds of small businesses from 2020 through 2026.

What we found was pretty stark: the share of businesses reaching zero has increased by about 7.7 percentage points every year, with no year-over-year decline.Cycling through zero is its own signal.

It points to thin margins, almost no financial cushion, and very little room for a bad month.That has implications well beyond the businesses themselves.

It affects hiring, suppliers, local economies, and the institutions serving them, especially small business lenders, banks, and credit unions trying to understand risk i

In real time.Inflation, rate hikes, supply-chain disruption, and tariffs tell the macro story.The bank account tells the lived one.

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